A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
